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In the week before last, all roads led to Adamawa state in North Eastern Nigeria, the home state of former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar. The event was critical; voters were going to the polls to elect a governor for the second time in twelve months. Candidate of the Action Congress (AC) Ibrahim Bapatel had secured a court ruling quashing the election of Murtala Nyako of the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). But the re-run election has come and gone with the re-election of the PDP.
For the AC the Adamawa election was like a battle for the soul of the party. The national secretariat of the party was literarily relocated to Adamawa in the hope of achieving one thing- a victory not only for the party but its presidential candidate over his sworn political enemies in the PDP. Conversely his opponents in the ruling party who sought to cut him to size in the run-up to the general elections in April last year also appeared bent on sniffing out of him the remaining political lifeline that could serve as a moral booster to the former Vice President. Thus prior to the election, the media was awash with reports of the intervention of some neighbouring governors to help fight the battle against Atiku. Indeed keen observers saw the election beyond a contest between Nyako and Bapatel. They alluded to a subterranean battle between Atiku who symbolises the AC and the forces that pushed him out of the PDP in the last lap of his tenure as Vice President. The stakes were thus high for many political gladiators. But few weeks ago, the national chairman of the PDP Prince Vincent Ogbulafor reminded opposition politicians like Atiku just how frustrating the future will be. "We said we are going to rule this country for 60 years...and we mean it", Ogbulafor said and even prophesized a dissent to one party system. "My expectation is that all Nigerians will in no distant time return to the PDP. All Nigerians, I don’t care if Nigeria becomes a one party state", he said. Can this be veiled reference to people like Atiku and will the former Vice President take advantage of reconciliation effort of the PDP to return to the old fold? Unfolding events have inspired the perception among many analysts that the AC appears to be treading on the rough road probably to where it came from. It is common knowledge that the desire to forge ahead in any aspects of life, not least in Nigerian politics, is re-enforced by preceding successes. But Atiku, himself a principal architect of the PDP rigging machine he now has to contain with knows just how trying the game is. But national secretary of the AC, Dr. Usman Bugaje dismissed any possibility of the return of the former Vice President to the PDP in an interview with Sunday Trust last week. "Atiku has said he will never go back to the PDP and that is our position", Bugaje said. The national scribe who spoke on line from Adamawa on the eve of the re-run election said: "What we have in the PDP is a bunch of dictators committed to electoral crimes and bulldozing their way without any sense of consideration for other parties or persons". Now that the Adamawa battle is won and lost, curious observers have also raised certain questions. For instance for how long will Atiku, around whom the AC is built, shoulder the burden of a party in opposition. And just in case he is bogged down by the sort of frustration that denied him and his party their deserved place in the system within the last one year, what will be the next step for the former number two man? But above all what is the faith of the AC if answers to these questions are in the negative? The AC has had its fair share of intra-party crises since it lost its bid for the presidency last year. Aside a latent ego-clash among prominent leaders, a major dispute over participation in Yar’Adua’s Government of National Unity also tore the party apart leading to the exit of the former national Secreatry, Alhaji Bashir Dalhatu, and some national officers from the party. Others who left the party also include Alhaji Abubakar Rimi and the former Speaker of the House of Representaives, Alhaji Ghali Umar Na’Abba. Though it did not escalate to similar level, the Bola Tinubu led Lagos AC was also against the decision of the party to stay away from the GNU. In an interview he granted Vanguard newspapers in November last year shortly after he quit the AC, Alhaji Rimi said "the AC is now being turned into a party of hero worshipping and the hero is Atiku Abubakar. Some of us cannot hero worship anybody. We are above that..." But his action and utterances earned him some nasty reactions as he was called names such as "cash and carry politician" and "a political liability". In any case, however one views the situation, Atiku will remain a major financier of the AC so long as the party exists and he also maintains membership. Impeccable party sources said the former Vice President’s long stay abroad most times is partly prompted by the desire to keep away from certain financial demands. Besides the source said many of those who left the party were apparently dissatisfied with a few clique within the party whom they accused of misleading Atiku and hijacking a chunk of funds that the former Vice President releases for running the activities of the party. So far the AC only controls the government in Lagos state. With the renewed determination of the judiciary to check the excesses of the fraudulent political class, the opposition had hoped to win some re-run elections ordered by the courts. But results emanating from such elections only suggest a slide modification of the propensity for manipulation as it was witnessed in April last year. Unlike the general elections last year when every politician was in his village trying to win in his constituency, the ruling PDP has a chance now to deploy resources and improved tact to isolated areas in any by-election to achieve maximum effect. It would be recalled that the AC was prompted to win the Adamawa election but for the disqualification of its candidate on the eve of the gubernatorial election in April last year. Though the results of the re-run did not reflect that expectation, the high rate of invalid votes recorded left behind many un-addressed questions. For obvious reasons, Adamawa is one state the party leaders had hoped to secure in order to push up their sphere of influence to two. Though the AC is awaiting the decision of the tribunals in states like Osun and Ekiti where the party is known to command a strong followership, the experience of Adamawa and Kogi seems to have jettisoned any enthusiasms with which the party leaders hope to pursue any future elections. This is why some party leaders are hoping that rather than order a re-run in Edo state, the Appeal tribunal should simply uphold the decision of the lower tribunal which declared its gubernatorial candidate in that state, Adams Oshomole as winner of the election conducted on April 14th last year. Though fresh elections have also been ordered in Sokoto and Bayelsa states, no opposition party seems to be looking forward to the elections because they are certain to turn out the way of Adamawa and Kogi. Indeed it takes a party in government to survive the vicissitudes of politics in Nigeria. This is partly because it requires so much to keep the party machine moving and more so because not a few Nigerian politicians will literarily fast in the opposition for years before election. Perhaps this explains why the size of the opposition parties keep shrinking with each passing election and like the Tsunami, the PDP keeps sweeping the votes in every corner any fresh election except those conducted in the few states the party does not control for now. By and large the AC, through its activiteis has proven so far that it is an example of what an opposition party should be. How long this will be sustained in the face of PDP’s hangman’s noose, only time will tell.
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